A market entry can have a credible forecast and no tested reason for customers to switch. An acquisition can have board support and no agreement on who owns integration. A product launch can have a budget and a price nobody has tested with buyers.
The decision gets approved. The unresolved questions travel with it.
APIG's Execution Gap Test gives leadership teams a way to surface those questions before committing more capital. It takes about six minutes and focuses on one decision, rather than asking you to assess your entire organization.
The outlook is weaker. Investment plans are not.
The Conference Board's October 15, 2026 release showed its Measure of CEO Confidence falling from 52 to 46. A reading below 50 reflects more negative than positive responses. Among the 131 CEOs surveyed, 41% expected economic conditions to worsen over the next six months, up from 19% in the previous quarter.
Yet 53% planned to maintain their capital spending, and 36% expected to increase it. Only 11% planned cuts. Source: The Conference Board
Deloitte's third-quarter CFO Signals survey showed a similar tension. Ninety percent of respondents were more optimistic about their own company's financial prospects, while the share saying it was a good time to take greater risks fell from 59% to 53%. Source: Deloitte
Those findings do not tell an individual company whether to invest. They make the question behind each investment more pressing: what evidence supports this particular bet?
Start with the claims your decision depends on
Before the next budget or investment meeting, list five claims that must hold true for the plan to work.
Customers will switch. The market is large enough. The price will hold. The funding will arrive. Someone will own the result.
Then ask what supports each claim. A customer interview, a behavioral analysis and an executive's conviction are different kinds of evidence. They should not carry the same weight.
McKinsey's research on decision making offers a useful discipline. For major, infrequent decisions, it found that the quality of debate mattered: exploring alternatives, seeking evidence that could disprove the initial case, and assigning someone to present counterarguments. These practices were associated with stronger decision-making performance. Source: McKinsey
The point is to find the question that needs answering before the next commitment.
Introducing the Execution Gap Test
Choose one decision your team is preparing to make: a market entry, product launch, acquisition, repositioning or major investment.
The test asks you to rate 15 claims from Unknown to Signed off, grouped into three gates.
Validate: Is the opportunity supported by evidence?
Led by Dr. R. Sukumar, OSG Analytics
Examine the size of the opportunity, which customers will buy and why, the signals that precede growth or loss, and the assumptions that could undermine the plan.
Design: Has the evidence become clear choices?
Led by Erania Brackett, Brackett Partners
Examine where you will compete, how you will win, what buyers need to hear, what you will stop funding and whether customers accept the proposed price.
Activate: Are funding and ownership in place?
Led by Forest T. Harper Jr., Harper Cook Consulting
Examine committed capital, executive accountability, leadership alignment, the P&L outcome and the signal that will reveal a stall early enough to act.
What you receive
Your results show:
- —A score for each gate.
- —The first gate below the test's threshold.
- —Open items you rated Unknown or Assumed.
Leave your contact details to receive a four-step action plan and a one-page decision memo for your next leadership meeting.
The scores summarize your own assessment. The 65% gate threshold is a working rule within the tool, not a statistically validated prediction of success or failure. Use the result to focus discussion and identify where further evidence or commitment is needed.
Bring one real decision
Pick the decision with the most capital behind it, or the one your leadership team keeps revisiting.
Prefer to discuss it first? Book 20 minutes with the Alliance. Tell us the decision in front of you. We will tell you whether and how we can help. No obligation either way.
The APIG team
OSG Analytics · Brackett Partners · Harper Cook Consulting